The latest midterm elections of 2022 have had a number of turns. Some states saw Democrat House candidates preserve their positions that were–by political trend–expected to go to the Republicans, while in the Senate the Democratic Party gained one seat, upsetting the political bets of a Republican takeover, which would have given the Republican Party more leverage with the Biden administration.
This election, although deemed to favor Republicans on the issues of crime, illegal immigration and inflation, backfired in some parts of the country because of the quality of candidates, most being hand picked by Trump and cruising through the primaries, while struggling to appease moderates and independents in the general elections.
Trump has seen his influence fade within the party, so much so that many conservative political figures are heavily considering putting their hat into the ring for the presidency, such as Nikki Haley, the former Governor of South Carolina.
“We’re ready to move past the stale ideas and faded names of the past. And we are more than ready for a new generation to lead us into the future,” Haley said.
Although Haley is the only other candidate so far for the Republican ticket, it is predicted that several other candidates will join in the upcoming year, which may include former Vice President Mike Pence, and potentially the Governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis.
However, to the establishment Republican Party and to a portion of moderate right voters, the more crowded the candidacy pool gets, the more chances Trump will have at winning the primaries.
“I fear it could end up the same way as 2016, which basically was (when) everyone thought everyone else should get out,” said Republican strategist Mike DuHaime, who advised former New Jersey Governors Chris Christie’s campaign that year.
“I think every major candidate realized that he or she would have a better shot against Trump one-on-one. But of course, each person thought he or she should be the one to get that shot and nobody got out of the way. … And then it was too late.”
Certain polls throughout the country have said that the two candidates with the highest chances of victory are Trump and DeSantis. According to the poll conducted by Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll on Feb. 15 and 16, almost half of the respondents said they would vote for Trump at 46 percent. The next politician is Ron DeSantis, who received 23 percent of the vote from the poll.
However, as of now, DeSantis’ chances decrease as more candidates join the race, taking away from his potential voting number.
While the Republican Party might deal with an overcrowded and chaotic field, their Democrat counterparts are facing silence, with no competition coming forward to challenge Biden, and with Biden himself stating that he intends to run again.
According to a Reuters Poll from Feb. 9, Biden currently has a 76 percent approval rating from Democrats, while Biden’s national approval is at 41 percent. This is making some Democrats question Biden’s capabilities to secure the presidency due to his age, which, if he does win the presidency, would make him the oldest president in history.
“He’s done a fine job. That’s not the issue…where’s his mental state gonna be another six years from now if he would be president again?” stated Stephen Couture, a Democrat voter. Other Democrats like 54-year-old Stephanie Whitney of Virginia feel that Biden has “done an extraordinary job,” but that it’s time for “some new voices.”
“I think that the Democratic Party has not done a great job of allowing younger leaders to take a more prominent role,” Whitney said. “I do think that they’re getting better in terms of (House leader Hakeem Jeffries) and other representatives, but I think it’s still limited.”
For both sides, it seems that the lack of candidates, or for the Republicans, the overflowing presence of them, are creating a scenario that we have seen in the 2020 elections: Biden versus Trump. Although the candidates may be the same, the rematch four years later will be played under different circumstances.
